HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0623

Time	Data and Events	Importance
To be determined	Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif holds important talks with Russian President Putin.	★★★
To be determined	The United States imposes a 50% tariff on various steel household appliances.	★★★
15:15	France’s June Manufacturing PMI preliminary value	★★★
15:30	Germany’s June Manufacturing PMI preliminary value	★★★
16:00	Eurozone’s June Manufacturing PMI preliminary value	★★★
16:30	UK’s June Manufacturing PMI preliminary value	★★★
	UK’s June Services PMI preliminary value	★★★
21:00	European Central Bank President Lagarde delivers an introductory speech at the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee hearing.	★★★
21:45	US June S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value	★★★
	US June S&P Global Services PMI preliminary value	★★★
22:00	US May Existing Home Sales Annualized Total	★★★
	Federal Reserve Governor Bowman speaks on monetary policy and the banking sector.	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Range	Resistance Range
US Dollar Index	Low-level rebound	96-97	100-100.5
Gold	Short-term correction	3340-3360	3450-3480
Crude Oil	Fluctuating with a strong bias	71-72	79-80
Euro	Short-term correction	1.1400-1.1450	1.1600-1.1630

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In June, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates for the fourth consecutive time. The dot plot indicates two rate cuts within the year. Inflation levels are slightly high, and uncertainty in the economic outlook has somewhat diminished, with the unemployment rate remaining low and the labor market stable. In May, non-farm payrolls added 139,000 jobs, which is basically in line with expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged, indicating a robust labor market. The unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate for May slightly increased but was below expectations, with a neutral short-term impact.

Technical Analysis:

The US Dollar Index rebounded last week, with daily fluctuations trending upward. There may be selling pressure at the current position, so attention should be paid to whether the price can break through significantly. If it does, the market may further rebound; if it cannot break through, it may remain in a short-term fluctuating structure. Overall, there is a large-scale weak fluctuating structure, with a large bearish candle on the weekly chart, indicating a short-term entry into a rebound market. The upper resistance area is around 100-100.5, while the lower support area is around 96-97.

Viewpoint: Low-level rebound; pay attention to whether the current position can break through significantly; otherwise, the market may remain fluctuating.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is escalating, with conflicts between Israel and Iran and turmoil in Eastern Europe. The ECB’s June interest rate decision marks the seventh consecutive 25 basis point cut, nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, with downward revisions to inflation expectations for this year and next, as well as a downward revision to GDP growth expectations for next year. The Federal Reserve’s June interest rate decision maintained rates, with slightly high inflation levels and a stable labor market, indicating two rate cuts within the year according to the dot plot. In May, non-farm payrolls in the US saw a slight decline in new jobs, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged; the unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate for May showed slight warming.

Technical Analysis:

The gold price has recently adjusted its structure, with a slight rebound in the night session last Friday. The support area has not been broken, and after opening this morning, it retested the support area for the second time. We should pay attention to whether a stabilization signal appears. If it clearly breaks below the support area, the market will further weaken. From a larger cycle perspective, the daily chart shows a strong oscillation, with resistance encountered near previous highs. The upper pressure level is around 3450-3480, while the lower support level is around 3340-3360.

Viewpoint: Short-term adjustment, second retest of the support area, pay attention to signals of stopping the decline and stabilizing.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The June EIA monthly report slightly raised oil prices for this year and next; the OPEC monthly report maintained the global oil demand growth forecast for this year and next, as well as the economic growth forecast for this year and next; the IEA monthly report slightly lowered the oil demand forecast for this year and next. At the end of May, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting agreed to set 2025 oil production as the benchmark for 2027 and will hold another round of negotiations in early June, possibly reaching an agreement to accelerate oil production increases in July. The Middle East conflict may lead to expectations of tighter supply. EIA crude oil inventories have significantly decreased, indicating signs of tightening supply and demand structure.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil, affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, opened significantly higher in the morning session, creating a new high in the short term and showing strong performance. It is approaching the pressure area above, so it is not advisable to chase the rise. If there are long positions, consider taking profits at highs and waiting for a pullback to buy low. Overall, crude oil has been in a low-level oscillation and consolidation, then broke upward on the daily level, indicating signs of a stronger market. The upper pressure area is around 79-80, while the lower support area is around 71-72.

Viewpoint: Oscillation is slightly strong, take profits on long positions at highs, and wait for a pullback to buy low.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s June interest rate decision saw a continuous seventh rate cut of 25 basis points, with the rate cut cycle nearing its end. There has been no discussion on the neutral interest rate, and the inflation forecast for this year and next has been lowered, along with the GDP growth forecast for next year. Trade upgrades have led to a slowdown in economic growth and inflation. In June, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision remained unchanged, with a robust labor market, slightly high short-term inflation, and reduced economic uncertainty. The dot plot indicates two rate cuts within the year. The Eurozone’s manufacturing PMI for May showed slight fluctuations, with a neutral short-term impact.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price has recently continued its adjustment rhythm, opening lower in the morning session and retesting the support area in the short term. We should pay attention to signals of stopping the decline and stabilizing. If it clearly breaks below this structure, the market may continue its weak adjustment. Overall, the daily chart shows an upward oscillation, with a strong structure on a larger scale. The upper pressure area is around 1.1600-1.1630, while the lower support area is around 1.1400-1.1450.

Viewpoint: Short-term adjustment, second retest of the support area in the short term, pay attention to signals of stopping the decline and stabilizing.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, and are for reference and learning purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.