HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0430

Time	Data and Events	Importance
To be determined	The World Gold Council releases the first quarter “Gold Demand Trends” report.	★★★
14:45	France’s April CPI month-on-month final value	★★★
15:00	Switzerland’s April KOF Economic Leading Indicator	★★★
16:00	Germany’s first quarter unadjusted GDP year-on-year preliminary value	★★★
17:00	Eurozone’s first quarter GDP year-on-year revised value	★★★
20:15	U.S. April ADP employment numbers	★★★★
20:30	U.S. Treasury Department releases quarterly refinancing statement	★★★
	Canada’s February GDP month-on-month	★★★
	U.S. first quarter actual GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter revised value	★★★
22:00	U.S. March core PCE price index year-on-year	★★★★
	U.S. March personal spending month-on-month	★★★
	U.S. March existing home sales index month-on-month	★★★
22:30	U.S. EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending April 25	★★★★
	U.S. EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma for the week ending April 25	★★★
	U.S. EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory for the week ending April 25	★★★
23:00	U.S. President Trump holds a cabinet meeting	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support range	Resistance range
U.S. Dollar Index	Weak oscillation	96-97	100-101
Gold	Short-term correction	3260-3270	3370-3380
Crude oil	Weak oscillation	57-58	65-66
Euro	Strong oscillation	1.1300-1.1350	1.1600-1.1650

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In the March Federal Reserve meeting, interest rates were kept unchanged, the labor market remained stable, inflation expectations for this and next year were raised, and GDP growth expectations for the next three years were lowered. Starting in April, the pace of balance sheet reduction will slow, and there is uncertainty regarding tariff policies. In March, non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 228,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate slightly rose, indicating a strong labor market. Tariff policies increase market risks and uncertainties. The unadjusted CPI year-on-year in March slightly decreased, raising expectations for future interest rate cuts. Attention is on Friday’s non-farm data.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index rebounded slightly yesterday, with moderate strength. The short-term performance is oscillating, and the recent decline has slowed, maintaining a low-level oscillation pattern without significant signs of stabilization. Attention is on whether the pressure structure can break through. Overall, the price has retreated from a high level, breaking through important support areas, and has not shown signs of stabilization. The upper pressure area is around 100-101, while the lower support area is around 96-97.

Viewpoint: Weak oscillation, signs of slowing decline, and short-term oscillation may continue.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to escalate, and there is uncertainty in the situation in Eastern Europe. The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision in April resulted in a 25 basis point cut for the sixth consecutive time, with inflation easing smoothly and economic resilience strengthening. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision in March remained unchanged, the labor market is stable, and GDP growth expectations have been lowered, indicating a slowdown in the pace of balance sheet reduction. In March, U.S. non-farm payroll data showed that the number of new jobs significantly exceeded expectations, while the unemployment rate slightly increased; the year-on-year CPI in March saw a slight decline, raising expectations for a Fed rate cut. U.S. tariff policies may stimulate the safe-haven properties of gold. Attention is on Friday’s non-farm data.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices continued to fluctuate slightly yesterday, moving back and forth within a range, with pressure above and support below. In the short term, it may maintain this fluctuation, with bulls slightly favored. Future attention will be on the direction of the breakout; if it breaks below support, the market will weaken further. From a larger cycle perspective, the upward structure is maintained, currently undergoing a secondary adjustment, with no signs of stabilization yet. The upper pressure level is around 3370-3380, and the lower support level is around 3260-3270.

Viewpoint: Short-term pullback, small cycle fluctuation structure, focus on breakout direction.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The April EIA monthly report basically maintains oil production for this and next year, slightly lowering global oil demand for this and next year; the OPEC monthly report slightly lowers the global economic growth forecast for this year and next, as well as the growth forecast for global oil demand; the IEA monthly report lowers the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025. At the beginning of April, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting maintained the oil production policy unchanged and agreed to exceed expectations for production increases in May. There is uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies, which may affect the demand side. Attention is on Wednesday’s EIA crude oil inventory report.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil continued to show weakness yesterday, with a small cycle of downward fluctuations, and the market performance is relatively weak. Short positions can be attempted, and profits should be taken promptly. In the short term, it may continue to test the lower support structure, at which point stabilization signals should be monitored. Overall, crude oil has shown weak performance previously, with a rebound at low levels, but no signs of major stabilization yet. The upper pressure area is around 65-66, and the lower support area is around 57-58.

Viewpoint: Weak fluctuations, may continue to test the support area, short positions can be attempted.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision in April resulted in a 25 basis point cut for the sixth consecutive time, with inflation easing smoothly and economic resilience strengthening. The monetary policy stance will be dynamically adjusted based on data and assessed in stages, with attention to trade situations. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision in March remained unchanged, raising inflation expectations and lowering GDP growth expectations, indicating a slowdown in the pace of balance sheet reduction. In March, the number of non-farm jobs in the U.S. significantly exceeded expectations, while the unemployment rate slightly increased; the year-on-year CPI in March saw a slight decline. The manufacturing PMI values of major Eurozone countries showed little change in April. Attention is on Friday’s U.S. non-farm data.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price fluctuated slightly yesterday, with little movement. The small cycle shows signs of resistance to upward movement, with selling pressure above but also support structure below. In the short term, it may maintain this fluctuation, focusing on the effectiveness of the support structure. If this area is broken, the market will weaken. Overall, the larger cycle’s upward structure remains intact, with a short-term adjustment underway, focusing on the effectiveness of the support area. The upper pressure area is around 1.1600-1.1650, and the lower support area is around 1.1300-1.1350.

Viewpoint: Strong fluctuations, reduce long positions to take profits at highs, focus on the effectiveness of the support area.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.